22 Oct 2008
Economic crisis
A few posts ago I said:
"Unless there is a economic crisis or extreme interest rate rise I don't see how this is going to happen in just a few years (not even the 7 years of the last downturn). It seems more likely to me that we'll have a property downturn for a decade or more finally resulting in fair value, before we start the march up again. "
I think we've just been through a bit of a banking crisis so perhaps lending criteria will dry/stiffen up sufficiently to sustain about 15% a year nominal drops, which gives us a 50% drop in only 3 years. I still think that's unlikely but with inflation near 5% the drops in real terms could be of that order.
"Unless there is a economic crisis or extreme interest rate rise I don't see how this is going to happen in just a few years (not even the 7 years of the last downturn). It seems more likely to me that we'll have a property downturn for a decade or more finally resulting in fair value, before we start the march up again. "
I think we've just been through a bit of a banking crisis so perhaps lending criteria will dry/stiffen up sufficiently to sustain about 15% a year nominal drops, which gives us a 50% drop in only 3 years. I still think that's unlikely but with inflation near 5% the drops in real terms could be of that order.
10 Oct 2008
Bought Northamber at 39.40p on Sept 25
Northamber Plc is a United Kingdom-based company principally engaged in the supply of computer hardware, computer printers and peripheral products, computer telephony products and other electronic transmission equipment.
Price/book = 0.34
price/tangible book = 0.34
price/(current assets - all liabilities) = 0.39
In the last few years it's been making a small profit and paying a dividend. Price has ranged between 117p and the current lows around 30p.
Lets see what the next few years bring.
Price/book = 0.34
price/tangible book = 0.34
price/(current assets - all liabilities) = 0.39
In the last few years it's been making a small profit and paying a dividend. Price has ranged between 117p and the current lows around 30p.
Lets see what the next few years bring.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
