12 May 2011
Luminar Annual Results
I bought Luminar back in early 2010 as a turn-around play on the assumption that if (IF) it survived then it might return to average earnings at an average PE, which might be something like 40p and 7 respectively, giving a potential share price of 280p. Currently they're around 9p and I bought at an average of 34p. Yes, obviously that makes me look pretty stupid and with hindsight I'd agree.
26 Apr 2011
Chemring Group – Leveraging global leadership
Chemring is primarily a defence group that currently focuses on countermeasures, counter IED, pyrotechnics and munitions. These four areas take advantage of the company’s three core competencies of energetic material expertise, high product safety and reliability and high volume manufacture of explosive products.
An entertaining review of the company can be seen at http://iball.iii.co.uk/2008/05/06/chemring-plc-chg
An entertaining review of the company can be seen at http://iball.iii.co.uk/2008/05/06/chemring-plc-chg
12 Apr 2011
What do Durex, Cillit Bang and Nurofen have in common?
In 1999 Reckitt & Coleman merged with Benckiser to form Reckitt Benckiser (RB). At the time Reckitt & Coleman were a leading global household products company with most of their turnover generated by brands with number one or two market positions. Benckiser was in a similar position with household cleaning products, especially their dishwasher brands including Finish, and the water softener Calgon.
At the time the CEO to be, Bart Becht said “Reckitt Benckiser will be the world number one household cleaning company and has the potential to create significant value for shareholders” and that “the merged company will benefit from new growth opportunities and a clear growth strategy, through focus on high growth core categories, raising the rate of innovation and brand investment, and from cross selling opportunities and scale benefits”.
28 Mar 2011
Predictability, growth and price
One of the interesting things about investing is the almost infinite number of ways that you can tackle it. From indexing to stock picking, bottom-up and top-down, technical and fundamental analysis, skuttlebutt and quantitative formulas, you’ve got enough options to keep you happy for a thousand years. That’s why I’m going to try out a new approach to value investing for a while. The eagle eyed among you may spot its origins.
17 Mar 2011
Billington Holdings – One last tangible asset play
“Billington Holdings Plc is a UK based group of companies providing structural steel and safety solution services to the UK
I bought Billington back in November at 85 pence but haven’t got round to analysing in writing yet, so I thought I’d nail this one before moving on to my recent turnaround purchases.
11 Mar 2011
Taking some quick and some slow profits
Monthly Performance Update
February has been a busy month, with two companies being bought and three being sold. The number of companies held is now 16 as at the end of February and my aim is to increase that to 20 over the coming months as part of a drive for more diversification.
The 1 year returns are about 6% behind the FTSE 100 total return, but in the longer term since 1st January 2010 I’m up by about 8%. However, this is far too short a timescale on which to judge the performance of any equity fund and unfortunately it’s next to useless at indicating future performance. Generally five years is suggested as a minimum timescale on which to invest in equities and on which to judge any given fund, including mine.
February has been a busy month, with two companies being bought and three being sold. The number of companies held is now 16 as at the end of February and my aim is to increase that to 20 over the coming months as part of a drive for more diversification.
The 1 year returns are about 6% behind the FTSE 100 total return, but in the longer term since 1st January 2010 I’m up by about 8%. However, this is far too short a timescale on which to judge the performance of any equity fund and unfortunately it’s next to useless at indicating future performance. Generally five years is suggested as a minimum timescale on which to invest in equities and on which to judge any given fund, including mine.
24 Feb 2011
A quantitative model
The model that makes up about 80% of my stock picking process has undergone several minor adjustments, one following quickly after the other. Since I have referred to it quite a bit recently I thought it might be useful to thrash out the details as well as its history.
The model detailed here replaced a previous effort which I used through 2008-2010. The old model focused almost exclusively on the balance sheet rather than on earnings, but eventually I had to admit that earnings might be important so I started this new one from scratch, basing it on the strongest research I could find.
The model detailed here replaced a previous effort which I used through 2008-2010. The old model focused almost exclusively on the balance sheet rather than on earnings, but eventually I had to admit that earnings might be important so I started this new one from scratch, basing it on the strongest research I could find.
19 Feb 2011
Portfolio review – January 2011
At the end of January my fund was down over 1% taking the rolling one year figure to 13%, slightly lagging the FTSE 100. 13% is down a long way in relation to the December one year figure (22%) but that’s due to what happened last January rather than in this one (last year’s was much better).
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